Do not, under any circumstances, dismiss the "Green-Red Declaration" or the "Monaco Secret Deal."
In Thai politics, "rumours" are almost always "real news" that arrives ahead of schedule… Just recently, there was the "Langkawi Secret Deal" — and sure enough, Thaksin Shinawatra returned to the country and the Pheu Thai Party became the government. There you have it.
Although Captain Thammanat Prompao, leader of the Kla Tham Party, came out to clarify the rumours — that he had travelled to Monaco to meet Thaksin Shinawatra and engage in political negotiations about forming a government or shifting the political power bloc — by explaining that he did indeed travel to France and Monaco, but that it was a family holiday and that there was no arranged meeting with Thaksin as reported.
Not meeting in person doesn't mean they didn't talk… And even if they did talk, there is no reason they would need to tell anyone. Besides, this is not the sort of matter that requires swearing an oath at the Temple of the Emerald Buddha.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul commented on the matter, saying: "Mix red and green together back and forth and you still get blue in the end."
It is unclear whether he was speaking to deflect the issue, or whether he was inwardly thinking of pulling the Kla Tham Party in as yet another coalition partner.
But according to the reports, the "Green-Red Declaration" is a deal to topple the blue.
Under the parliamentary system, the opposition can bring down a government through a no-confidence debate, in which the government side loses the vote, or the number of members voting to express confidence in the government falls below half.
According to the timeline… the ordinary parliamentary session is scheduled to open at the end of this August. Therefore, in early September, the opposition may begin raising issues and drumming up public sentiment — or the government side may produce its own scandals for people to criticise.
The submission of a no-confidence motion could take place toward the end of September, for the actual debate to proceed in October.
Do not forget that October, in Thai politics, seems to carry a certain curse — it is a month in which events that lead to political change tend to occur.
In this battle, the government has a great many issues to be grilled on: the Khao Kradong land dispute, the Senate bid-rigging scandal, AI passports, cheating in civil service recruitment examinations, partisan appointments and transfers, failure to tackle the drug problem, scammers, the Thai-Cambodian border issue, foreign nominee schemes, business encroachment, land encroachment, phantom fathers and phantom mothers, economic problems, and the 400-billion-baht borrowing that was said to be for economic stimulus and energy transition — which has now made it plain for all to see that the money was borrowed to buy popularity and build the party's own political base. In short, wherever you touch, you find nothing but festering wounds.
If the vote day comes and Pheu Thai simply chooses to "abstain" rather than vote against — that alone would be enough to bring the house down immediately.
The government currently holds 291 votes. Pheu Thai has 74. Should those be removed through abstention, the confidence tally would drop to just 217 — short of the required majority of 250 — and the Anutin government would collapse.
And if the "Green-Red Declaration" holds, Captain Thammanat Prompao would surely not bring Kla Tham's 58 votes to prop up a corpse. In such a situation, Anutin would not be able to dissolve parliament, because the Constitution prohibits a Prime Minister from dissolving the House once a no-confidence motion has been submitted, as a means of escaping the debate.
Therefore, if the confidence vote falls below half, there is only one path: Anutin must vacate the position of Prime Minister.
The next step would then see Sophon Zarum, the Speaker of the House, convene a parliamentary session to elect a new Prime Minister.
The Bhumjaithai Party has only one remaining candidate on its prime-ministerial nominee list: Sihasak Phuangketkaew, who stands as its sole contender.
The People's Party has three prime-ministerial candidates: 1. "Teng" — Nattaphong Ruangpanyawut; 2. "Mai" — Sirikanya Tansakul; and 3. "Ajarn Ton" — Weerayut Kanchucha.
However, upon examining the details and qualifications, candidates No. 1 and No. 2 — Teng and Mai — are found to carry a blemish: both have cases currently under consideration by the Supreme Court, namely the case in which the National Anti-Corruption Commission filed charges against 44 former Move Forward Party MPs over ethical standards violations arising from the campaign to amend Section 112. The Supreme Court has merely not ordered them to suspend their duties, and has set a framework to conclude the proceedings within one year. They should therefore not be put forward as prime-ministerial contenders against Sihasak.
The People's Party is thus left with only Ajarn Ton — but the question is whether he will receive the green light from Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the party's true owner. There has been persistent talk that as long as Thanathorn has not served out his political ban, even if the party wins an election, its people will not be allowed to become Prime Minister.
For now, however, the party's people ought to be gaining hands-on experience as cabinet ministers, in order to dispel the criticism that they are all talk but have never actually governed.
Meanwhile, Pheu Thai Party has "Ajarn Chain" — Yotchanant Wongsawat, the political heir of Thaksin Shinawatra — as the party's top prime-ministerial candidate.
Looking at the relationships among Thaksin Shinawatra, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, and Suriya Juangroongruangkit, the odds that Ajarn Chain will be paired up as a prime-ministerial contender against Sihasak are greater than the odds of it being Ajarn Ton.
At present, the People's Party holds 118 seats in parliament, Pheu Thai 74, and Kla Tham 58 — totalling exactly 250 votes.
For Ajarn Chain to become Prime Minister and form a government, he would also need the Democrat Party's additional 22 votes, or the Pracharath Party's 5 votes, Thai Ruam Palang Party's 6 votes, and a number of smaller parties.
This is not mere fantasy — it is one of the political scenarios that has a genuine chance of occurring in the future.
Do not forget that in Thai politics, everything can be resolved through negotiation… because politics is a matter of interests.
