The Finance Ministry has revised upward its economic forecast for Thailand in 2026 to growth of 2.5%, supported by exports, accelerated investment, private consumption, and reinforcement from economic policies.
Mr. Winit Wisetsuwannapum, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office and spokesman for the Ministry of Finance, disclosed the results of the economic forecast for Thailand in 2026, projecting growth of 2.5% — a slight acceleration from the previous year — underpinned mainly by continued strong export growth, high growth in private sector investment acceleration, and private consumption benefiting from positive factors arising from economic policies.
The Ministry of Finance expects Thailand's economy to expand by 2.5% in 2026 (forecast range: 2.0% to 3.0%), revised upward from the previous estimate of 1.6% made in April 2026, with the key positive factor being external demand. Export values in US dollar terms are expected to grow by 12.5%, revised upward from the previous forecast of 6.2%, benefiting significantly from improved demand from major trading partners. Merchandise exports have grown continuously for the first five months at an average of 10.9%, particularly in industries recovering in line with the global economic cycle. On the import side, merchandise import values in US dollar terms are expected to grow by 19.0%, consistent with the direction of accelerating private sector investment, leading to increased imports of machinery, equipment, and capital goods, as well as the effect of higher energy import prices during the second quarter.
In addition, the Thai economy is also supported by domestic demand trending toward robust expansion, serving as an important engine driving the economy. Private consumption is expected to grow by 2.7%, supported by government policies to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis. Meanwhile, private investment is expected to grow by 9.0%, boosted by continued high growth in machinery and equipment investment and the expansion of investment funds in promoted projects — particularly in targeted industries (New S-Curve) — under the Thailand FastPass measure. The removal of various obstacles and constraints has helped elevate the confidence of foreign investors in establishing production bases in Thailand, resulting in total foreign investment value in the first half of 2026 amounting to 187 billion baht, an increase of 68.3% compared to the same period of the previous year.
On the fiscal side, government consumption is expected to grow by 1.5%, and public investment is expected to grow by a healthy 3.2%. These factors are a result of the fiscal year 2027 annual expenditure budget being completed on schedule — having previously been at risk of delay — which will serve as an important mechanism enabling funds to flow continuously into the economy, particularly through large-scale infrastructure investments (Mega Projects) that will help enhance competitiveness and attract private sector investment (crowding-in effect).
Regarding economic stability, domestic stability is expected to see a general inflation rate of 2.0% per year (forecast range: 1.5% to 2.5%), based on an assumption of an average annual Dubai crude oil price of USD 82.0 per barrel (forecast range: USD 77.0 to USD 87.0 per barrel), down from the previous estimate of USD 91 per barrel. On external stability, the current account is expected to post a slight deficit of -USD 0.5 billion, or -0.1% of GDP, mainly due to a current account deficit in the first half of 2026 caused by a high deficit in the energy account.
The Finance Ministry spokesman said that the Ministry of Finance aims to push the Thai economy to grow to its full potential and is committed to driving 2026 to be a year of investment. Thailand has continuously succeeded in attracting foreign investment through the granting of incentives, the inter-agency investment acceleration mechanism (Thailand FastPass), and business matching by the Board of Investment (BOI). The key strengths enabling Thailand to attract high levels of investment stem from its outstanding regional infrastructure readiness and the country's stance of Active Neutrality, making Thailand an attractive destination for investors who may wish to relocate production bases away from geopolitical conflicts.
Nevertheless, factors that may affect the Thai economy should be closely monitored, including: 1) conflicts in the Middle East region, which remain highly volatile and could cause energy prices to rise again; 2) uncertainty from new trade protectionist policies following the United States' temporary tariff rates; and 3) the Super El Niño situation, which could lead to an extreme heat crisis and drought toward the end of the year.
