Asia Plus Securities has assessed that global financial markets are facing heavy pressure from three key risk factors — or "3 Wars (Part 2)" — which are directly weighing on demand for risk assets. These are:
**Middle East War 2.0:** The situation has escalated in intensity, with President Donald Trump stating that Iran is being heavily struck and is not yet ready to reach a deal. He has also threatened to attack Iran's bridges and power plants if it continues to target ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in turn, has threatened to retaliate by targeting US energy infrastructure and assets. This crisis has brought commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to near zero and has driven WTI crude oil prices continuously higher, approaching the $90 per barrel level.
**Trade War 2.0:** The United States is preparing to announce a new round of import tariffs on more than 60 trading partners worldwide (including Thailand) at rates of 10%–12.5%, ahead of the temporary 10% tariff's expiration this Friday. Of particular concern is that Thailand faces a high risk of being subjected to elevated tariff rates, as the US trade deficit with Thailand has grown steadily — rising to become the 7th-largest US bilateral trade deficit in the world in 2025 (up from 13th place in 2018).
**Tech War 2.0:** The AI competition between the United States and China has intensified again after Chinese startup Moonshot AI unveiled its Kimi K3 model with 2.8 trillion parameters, which is set to be made available as a free open-weight download on 27 July 2026. At the same time, the United States has alleged that Moonshot AI relied on data from US-developed models and used Thailand as a server base (GB300 chips) for training the model.
Regarding Q2/2026 earnings results for large-cap technology stocks, Alphabet (GOOG US) reported profits and revenues that significantly exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of $119 billion (+24% YoY) and earnings per share (EPS) surging 294% YoY to $9.11. The primary driver was its Cloud business, which grew at a remarkable 82% YoY, benefiting from demand for Agentic AI. As a result, the company raised its capital expenditure (CAPEX) target to $195–205 billion, which will be a positive catalyst for AI Infrastructure stocks globally.
On the other hand, Tesla (TSLA US), despite reporting total revenue of $28.2 billion (+26% YoY) and EV vehicle sales recovering to 480,000 units, saw EPS contract 18% YoY to $0.33. The primary reason was its gross profit margin (GPM) falling to just 16.8% due to fierce price competition in the Chinese market.
On the domestic front, the research division estimates that listed companies' net profit for Q2/2026 (from 129 companies, representing 86% of market capitalization) will come in at 293 billion baht. Although this represents a decline of 2.1% QoQ and 3.8% YoY from a high base last year, several industries are showing outstanding growth, including petrochemicals, packaging (PKG), agriculture (AGRI), ICT, and tourism.
Notably, since April 2026, EPS revisions for the Thai stock market (SET) have been revised upward by 3.8% — the second-highest in the world, trailing only the Dow Jones index — and moving in the opposite direction from neighboring markets, which have seen downward revisions.
Asia Plus Securities' research division therefore recommends an investment strategy to navigate the volatility from the 3 Wars, focusing on industry groups that are resilient or stand to benefit, namely the energy, insurance, healthcare, petrochemical, and retail sectors.
The strategy is divided into two main themes:
Stocks expected to show profit growth both QoQ and YoY: IVL, PTTGC, BCP, TRUE, SCGP, DOHOME, PTTEP, ADVICE, SC, ADVANC, PTT, and MASTER are recommended.
Stocks with continued earnings growth but laggard prices: BCPG, AMATA, DELTA, and CRC are recommended.
DELTA, BDMS, and CPALL have been designated as the day's Prime Picks, as they belong to groups that are sheltered from the war environment and carry no negative impact scores.
